Gina-Marie CheesemanClimate Refugees: A Serious, Looming Crisis
December 10th 2007 02:09
The Global Governance Project, a joint research program of 11 European research institutions which studies global governance in relation to sustainable development, released a November 2007 study titled, “Preparing for a Warmer World.” The study looked at climate refugees.
The findings of the study are chilling. Over 200 million people in developing countries might end up refugees due to climate change over the next century. Current institutions, funding organizations, and funding mechanisms are inadequate to deal with the problem.
The large part of climate refugees will be due to extreme weather events such as tropical cyclones and storm surges, and also drought and water scarcity. According to the study, “Storm surges will be more frequent and often cause more damage than the gradual rise of the sea level.”
More than 90% of the people affected by flooding due to rising sea levels will be from Africa and Asia. Currently one to three percent of the planet is affected by extreme drought, but by 2090 it could increase to 30%. Temperature increases of just one to two percent by 2085 would affect 700-1500 million people, and increases of two to three percent could cause 800-1800 million people to suffer from water shortages.
The number of people suffering from hunger caused by climate change could be 200 million by 2050 and 550 by 2080. Currently one-sixth of the population depends on water from glacier melt, but this will decline in the coming decades.
“The peoples of the Arctic and the small islands of this world face many of the same threats as a result of climbing global temperatures the most acute of which is the devastation of their entire ways of life,” said Klaus Toepfer, United National Environmental Program Director.
“The melting and receding of sea ice and the rising of sea levels, storms surges and the like are the first manifestations of big changes underway which eventually will touch everyone on the planet. The plight of these vulnerable peoples should be a clear signal to governments meeting here in Montreal that we must hurry up if we are to avert a climate-led catastrophe for current and future generations,” he added.
South Pacific climate refugees
Island chains in the Pacific like Tegua are particularly vulnerable to flooding caused by storm surges. Tegua is part of a small Pacific island chain called Vanatu whose coastal homes have been repeatedly flooded by storm surges linked to climate change. The residents of Tegua have been relocated to higher ground on the island. The relocation has been called Capacity Building for the Development of Adaptation in Pacific Island Countries.
The Carteret atolls lie about 85 kilometers northeast of Bougainville. The autonomous government responsible for the Carterets developed a plan to move the islanders to Bougainville. The Carterets have battled storm surges for over 30 years. Some experts believe the Carterets will be completely submerged by 2015. In 1999 two uninhabited islands, Tebua Tarawa and Abanuea, became completely submerged.
“We want to do it in a systematic fashion rather than just a knee jerk reaction,” Bougainville Deputy Administrator Raymond Masono said. “There's a general understanding among the people that their situation has been caused by global warming causing the sea level to rise,” he added.
Tuvalu, the small South Pacific island, is being swamped by rising ocean water. In 2005 New Zealand agreed to accept all of the population, estimated to be about 11,000. Experts believe the island will be submerged in 30 to 50 years.
In May 2006 the Prime Minister of Tuvalu said, I would say the situation is very scary now…even recently, one of the islands by (our) main island capital just disappeared. It will be very sad if Tuvalu actually disappears. So we only hope that everybody makes an effort to reverse global warming — that is our only hope.”
The findings of the study are chilling. Over 200 million people in developing countries might end up refugees due to climate change over the next century. Current institutions, funding organizations, and funding mechanisms are inadequate to deal with the problem.
The large part of climate refugees will be due to extreme weather events such as tropical cyclones and storm surges, and also drought and water scarcity. According to the study, “Storm surges will be more frequent and often cause more damage than the gradual rise of the sea level.”
More than 90% of the people affected by flooding due to rising sea levels will be from Africa and Asia. Currently one to three percent of the planet is affected by extreme drought, but by 2090 it could increase to 30%. Temperature increases of just one to two percent by 2085 would affect 700-1500 million people, and increases of two to three percent could cause 800-1800 million people to suffer from water shortages.
The number of people suffering from hunger caused by climate change could be 200 million by 2050 and 550 by 2080. Currently one-sixth of the population depends on water from glacier melt, but this will decline in the coming decades.
“The peoples of the Arctic and the small islands of this world face many of the same threats as a result of climbing global temperatures the most acute of which is the devastation of their entire ways of life,” said Klaus Toepfer, United National Environmental Program Director.
“The melting and receding of sea ice and the rising of sea levels, storms surges and the like are the first manifestations of big changes underway which eventually will touch everyone on the planet. The plight of these vulnerable peoples should be a clear signal to governments meeting here in Montreal that we must hurry up if we are to avert a climate-led catastrophe for current and future generations,” he added.
South Pacific climate refugees
Island chains in the Pacific like Tegua are particularly vulnerable to flooding caused by storm surges. Tegua is part of a small Pacific island chain called Vanatu whose coastal homes have been repeatedly flooded by storm surges linked to climate change. The residents of Tegua have been relocated to higher ground on the island. The relocation has been called Capacity Building for the Development of Adaptation in Pacific Island Countries.
The Carteret atolls lie about 85 kilometers northeast of Bougainville. The autonomous government responsible for the Carterets developed a plan to move the islanders to Bougainville. The Carterets have battled storm surges for over 30 years. Some experts believe the Carterets will be completely submerged by 2015. In 1999 two uninhabited islands, Tebua Tarawa and Abanuea, became completely submerged.
“We want to do it in a systematic fashion rather than just a knee jerk reaction,” Bougainville Deputy Administrator Raymond Masono said. “There's a general understanding among the people that their situation has been caused by global warming causing the sea level to rise,” he added.
Tuvalu, the small South Pacific island, is being swamped by rising ocean water. In 2005 New Zealand agreed to accept all of the population, estimated to be about 11,000. Experts believe the island will be submerged in 30 to 50 years.
In May 2006 the Prime Minister of Tuvalu said, I would say the situation is very scary now…even recently, one of the islands by (our) main island capital just disappeared. It will be very sad if Tuvalu actually disappears. So we only hope that everybody makes an effort to reverse global warming — that is our only hope.”
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